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Local Real Estate and/or underlying economics
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Author Topic: Local Real Estate and/or underlying economics  (Read 21629 times)
Kokopelli
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Posts: 22



« on: October 05, 2007, 10:15:20 AM »

I'm a local RE Broker. I have been in the business here in the valley for over 20 years.

If any one has any issues that they want information on, leave me a message and I will see if I can answer them for you. No personal or company related discussions please. I have access to lots of information and lots of knowledge, so ask away. General questions though because the law says that if I get into substantive discussions of price or ability to purchase or reasons to sell, there are disclosures that need to be made. Then our discussion would need to be more formal and personal.

Sales have been slowing down in the valley for a few years now. Mid 2005 was the peak and it has been a gradual decline since then. The biggest decline in sales has been within the city limits, the sale of vacant lots have virtually stopped. Sales of unimproved parcels outside the city have also been extremely slow. The least affected has been moderately priced residential properties out of the city but even those are slow and inventories are rising.

Inventories of all properties have been rising for well over a year now. So are foreclosures, which are and have been slow to reach the market. But this will change and that will add to our rising inventories and price declines unless for some miracle the buying activity picked up dramatically.

I think this trend will continue and will accelerate for the foreseeable future.

Below I discuss the reasons for the trend reversal from when prices were still rising in 2005 and why I believe the downward price trend will continue. 

For over 50 years there was a rather stable home ownership rate in this country, about 64%. Starting in about 1995 there was a conscious effort by the government to increase this percentage. Let's just say they succeeded. Now over 70% of households own real property. That is more than a 9% increase over what was a 50 year trend.

At first it was programs to assist. But after 911 there was a concerted effort to increase the economic activity in the US so at first interest rates went down. When the effect of that started slowing down the government allowed the banks to lower the qualifications for loans. All of this was possible due to financial engineering. Another discussion if anyone would like it. Any at the peak I would say that if you could walk and chew gum, you could get a loan. 

Well to shorten this, the practice of lending to people with poor credit or no credit, lots of money on interest only or teaser rate loans has already started to collapse. Add to this that the push for more home ownership also caused a shortage in housing inventories so the builders went to work. These projects do not happen over night so many of them are still going on well after the need has collapsed. Thus the rising delinquencies, increasing inventories and slowing sales are depressing current prices.

The depressed sales are affecting the refinancing of all the creative loans used to bring in that additional 9% of buyers too, which under more normal circumstances would not have been owners. 

There is a current push to refinance many of these toxic loans due to these option ARM and interest only ARM and other ARM loans having an initial period of low low payments. Why is another story. But this resetting is causing a flurry of activity. Not only to refinance but to sell and get out from under a loan they canít afford.

To much inventory and to few buyers means that as the home values decline. The amount of money a lender can lend also declines. Then because of increasing losses from a variety of these toxic loans going bad, this has caused lenders to tighten standards for lending just at a bad time for all those people who need to refinance. They are now being asked in many cases for a down payment on a house that is worth less than they originally paid. So they canít get a new loan and they canít meet the payments of the old loan and in mass they are defaulting and in mass going into foreclosure.  Many canít even sell because they owe much more than the house could be sold for today.

This of course causes lender to tighten the standards even tighter. This is the opposite of the looser and looser standards that came into effect starting in late 2001 and ending in 2006 which ended up with the high prices we see on homes today. This is the opposite of 10% to 25% or more per year increases in home prices (appreciation?). This will be the 10% or more per year decrease in home values. Could be worse. I donít know. My crystal ball got dropped a while back and is just fuzzy haze now.

The resetting of the creative option ARM and other toxic loans has really just begun. This process goes on for another year and then after a break of a year starts again for another 18 months or so. This puts more than just additional downward pressure on real estate sales and values. As the ďBuy now before prices go upĒ becomes ďthe longer I wait the cheaper the house will beĒ scenario.

So the issues affecting the current real estate market are large and growing inventories along with slowing sales.   Any slack there was in people who wanted to be home owners is gone. Losses on loans are causing lenders to tighten standards and that will only get worse. All of which causes further rising inventories and prices to go lower. 

Theoretically this will continue until a balance is achieved between sales and inventory and lending. This balance has to be where a willing buyer under normal circumstances can purchase a home using the income they have. All these hokus pokus flim flam toxic mortgages will have to be worked thru as will the excesses in inventories will have to be used up with increased population. We may even go back to a minimum of 20% down again. I donít really know what the outcome will be, just that there are consequences for greed and stupidity and we have just started to deal with them.

My best guess is another 3 years but that is just a guess. What happens locally could be different. It could be longer or shorter. Even if people wanted to move here, they have to sell where they are and then either have enough left to buy here or have enough income to get a loan. I have no guess what any of that will be like going forward. Lending could get back to local money only or much tighter standards or it could loosen up again. I do know that since late 2005 real estate sales have been declining in the valley, inventories of unsold homes have been rising and prices have started to decline.

There are some big demographics in play too with the soon to be retiring Boomers. There are also issues like the HUGE unfounded federal deficits and how that affects incomes and lending. What happens when the Boomers stop paying into the SS Trust Fund and start asking for their payments.  All are interesting topics if anyone is interested.

Kopopelli, the flute playing hunch backed trickster
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billy-bob
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« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2007, 04:54:23 PM »

One thing that I have been wondering about is; who can afford to buy/and or rent all of the houses being built around here?  Is there a secret that the developers know that I don't? I once owned too but paid over half my income for payment and the lender thought it was a well and proper thing to do.  I wonder whose wisdom that was?  Sure, I was foolish to do it, but they said ",Come on you cam do it; live the American Dream."  Well'once burned; twice shy."
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GOD , I'm still here!
Kokopelli
Senior Member
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Posts: 22



« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2007, 04:42:44 PM »

Good question!

Affordability is really dependent upon a lot of factors. One of course is income vs. the cost of owning and another is the cost of the money you need to borrow to own. There are other factors like how much of your income the lender thinks can be spent on servicing the debts you have. 

For years there were few new homes built in our valley because the cost of land, development costs, material and labor and the cost of the money made the cost of the finished home way to expensive for the average incomes that could be earned. Then came along engineered financing and deregulation of standards like no down payment but also income to debt ratios were allowed to raise from around 30% of gross income to around 50% of gross incomes and all of a sudden families were able to borrow a lot more money than before.

In a short period of time there was then a shortage of houses because  many families who previously couldn't qualify for a loan now could. Builders got busy and started projects to fill the need. And the first houses sold so they made more and more. Now we have to many.

Today we have run the course on loans. Many of those who were allowed to borrow were not only allowed to borrow more than was prudent but many were lent money with adjustable rate loans which after a few years adjust up. There were many versions of loans where some only paid interest for the first couple of years and others who didn't even pay the interest.. Many of these borrowers are no longer able to make their payments and are defaulting so the lenders have stopped allowing the more risky kinds of loans slowing down sales. 

As to who the newest homes were being built for, well it wasn't for people who already live and work in the valley as we generally don't make enough to afford to borrow $250K or more. Especially if you have to have a down payment and pay the entire costs of a fully amortized loan. 

I have had many conversations with the builders and they all believed that the houses would be bought by Boomers retiring. They cite the new medical facility and the 18 hole golf course that is they think is going in and the new shopping center and .... They thought that the Boomers would be selling in California for half a million plus and then come here and buy a house for half that much or more and live off the remainder. 

I don't know where they got these ideas but it wasn't from me.
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Sharloch
Junior Member
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Posts: 18


« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2008, 11:43:19 AM »

I am buying a home in Cave Junction as I write these lines. The choice of Cave Junction was based on the small size of the town, healthy environment, long distance from any major cities, good climate and slow pace of the community. I am actually pleased to see that there is no economic boom in the area. From my experience it always means degradation of the environment, pollution, crime and high cost. I do not understand why most people desire growth.  I realize that the real estate business does best when there is a demand for property, but it is not without cost and detriment to other qualities of life. I do not wish to see lot of retirees from wherever buying up properties in CJ. If they need golf courses they can move to Florida. Florida is oversaturated with golf courses and it is pitiful. Save CJ as it is, do not desire any more growth, because with time it only brings misery. Sustainability means quality.
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Kokopelli
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Posts: 22



« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2008, 02:37:11 PM »

Sharloch,

Change is the only constant. Things change. You can either plan for change or change happens to you. The most recent changes with the new housing and the big project on the north end of town happened to us. It was not a plan by the local people. But then there was no plan by the locals, so outsiders came in with their plans. And that was to use our infrastructure to make a lot of money for themselves at the expense of our quality of life. Don't blame this on the local Realtors.

If you have no growth and an incredibly poor economic base, how do people support themselves? If you do not want growth then the change is towards a lower standard of living. At one time in the past the City of Cave Junction had some police and the county had a library and a functioning swimming pool. Not now!

No such thing as having your cake and eating it too.

You must have outside income, you are lucky or you are lucky to have a job that pays enough to fund buying a home. The average family living here is barely surviving. Median Household Income: $21,539 (2000 census) Not much improved as far as I can tell either.  http://zipskinny.com/index.php?zip=97523

I know what you mean about growth and retirees. But now that all these lots are developed and there is no work for families, who do you think will fill up these lots and empty houses? You must be a member of the Ostrich Society if you think there is much choice at this point without some positive changes that I don't know about. Most of the retirees will be of low incomes not high incomes with out something being done for them in services, entertainment opportunities and security. 

Who knows about the expanded golf course. I still haven't figured out where they are going to get enough water to keep the greens green. If they buy it from the city, the fees will be to high for most locals to use it. So I have no idea if that will end up as an attraction or a distraction.

But I can't imagine any wealthy family wanting to live here with no law enforcement. Call 911 and get told that there is no one available till next week to even look into their complaint wouldn't go over with most. If the Realtors don't tell them about this drawback then they aren't living up to their fiduciary responsibility to their clients.

This area is easily exploited because of the low paying jobs and the high cost of living.  Get your head out of the sand hole!  It is a beautiful place to live on one hand and a terrible place to live on the other. Not good if you have to much and extremely difficult if you have to little. 

Good luck and welcome aboard!

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Sharloch
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Posts: 18


« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2008, 09:36:00 AM »

There is no zoning and land use plan in place? Most counties can limit undesirable development by zoning restrictions, like lot sizes, etc.

As far as the change argument, it is only a philosophical argument. Naturally everything changes, the problem is when it changes for the worst. This usually the case when there is no plan in place, then exploitation is allowed. That often happens when there is no local functional government or when the local politicians are in pockets of wealthy developers and investors, when people are intimidated by police and political corruption, and when people have limited access to their elected government. Politicians in pockets of developers do not listen to ordinary people. Is it not obvious from all the recent bad news? I also do not see a reason for a strong police force. They often harass law abiding citizens for traffic violations and concentrate on areas where to extract easy fines and tickets, often avoiding the real problems like corruption, drugs, violent crime. If there was a community awareness that every citizen owns a gun, potential thieves would think twice before breaking into someones home. Even a pepper spray will prevent rape.

As far as the economic situation: Does every community have to wait for some investor to build them a Walmart? Where is the American spirit of entrepreneurship? Small businesses are superior in community value to any large corporations. They build character, responsibility, they have a human face and they leave the money circulating locally vs. corporations who are without face, anonymous, sucking only local resources for someone making outrages profits, dividends and bonuses.

And yes, if you cannot govern yourself, somebody will be happy to govern you, like the outsiders that you complain about.

Sharloch
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Kokopelli
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Posts: 22



« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2008, 12:35:16 PM »

Sharlock,

Nice hearing back from you.

I didn't say there wasn't any zoning. That was mandated by the state. The north end project isn't even in the city, it is in the county.  It is in the city UGB. The zoning was/is county zoning, not city. There certainly was no development plan by the city that I am aware of. If there had been, then any development would have had to follow that plan. There is little real planning in the city much less the UGB. The UGB is under the county control until brought into the city which makes planning difficult anyway.

There was a basic plan submitted to the city council some years ago by the City's own committee to update the Comprehensive Plan that included that area and delivery of water and sewer to Kerby but it was rejected. My belief was that it was just to much for them to think about. Planning requires lots of thought and maybe even some studies and what unpaid city council member wants to spend their time planning.  So the development waited until someone from outside the area took an interest. Because the city didn't have a plan, their only option was to accept the developer's plan. There wasn't even an option at that point to reject it.

Of course the city does not have the brightest people who volunteer for public office. First they allowed the Limited Improvement District to go forward with out knowing the rules. Which was stopped by the Versteeg family. Now the latest is the city is being denied a $442,000 Community Block Grant..  "THE OECDD IS WITHDRAWING A $441,666 COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT BLOCK GRANT GIVEN TO THE CITY FOR INFRASTRUCTURE EXTENSIONS TO THE SISKIYOU COMMUNITY HEALTH CLINIC.

REASONS FOR THE GRANT WITHDRAWAL INCLUDE THE FACT THAT THE CONSTRUCTION CONTRACT FOR THE INFRASTRUCTURE EXTENSION WAS AWARDED WITHOUT COMPLETION OF THE REQUIRED FEDERAL ENVIRONMENTAL CLEARANCE FOR CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITIES. THE LETTER STATES THAT THERE IS NO WAY TO REMEDY THE VIOLATION.

THE CITY ALSO FAILED TO PROVIDE DOCUMENTATION THAT THE PROJECT WOULD MEET THE FEDERALLY REQUIRED OBJECTIVE OF CREATING OR RETAINING JOBS FOR LOW AND MODERATE INCOME PERSONS.

ACCORDING TO THE LETTER, THE CITY DID NOT PROVIDE DOCUMENTATION THAT ANY JOBS WERE CREATED OR RETAINED AS A RESULT OF THE PROJECT.

BECAUSE OF ALL THAT, THE GRANT WILL BE IMMEDIATELY WITHDRAWN WITHOUT PAYMENT. OECDD WILL BE FEDERALLY REQUIRED TO INVESTIGATE LABOR STANDARDS COMPLIANCE FOR THE PROJECT, AND THE CITY WILL BE BANNED FROM APPLYING FOR COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT BLOCK GRANT FUNDS FOR TWO YEARS."  By local radio station KAJO

I have no idea what this will do to the city or Siskiyou Community Health Center. Neither of them have the money to pay for the infrastructure. And the road is already done. Can't go back now.

As for law enforcement. IF you had a strong city council, you could control a small police force to make them do what was right rather than act like pigs. I have been in towns where the police were friendly and courteous and in towns when I was young where they weren't. I understand your concerns.  They don't have to be what you experienced or fear. It is better to have competent police than vigilante rule or wild wild west shoot outs. I would prefer not to carry a gun or be fearful.

The change argument may be philosophical for you but I believe that you either plan for change or change happens to you. It is like the decision about going to school to learn to have a career of your choice. You either plan and get what you want OR don't plan for your future and hope you are lucky.  Or for retirement, you either plan to have enough income or you just hope.  You either plan for change or it live with the consequences.
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Sharloch
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Posts: 18


« Reply #7 on: January 24, 2008, 03:54:27 AM »

Now I tend to agree with you more than before. Looks like there is a strong need for functional government in CJ to protect the community from political cronies outside the area. The first think to curb unchecked development or development without local influence is to establish a subdivision ordinance for the area. If retired people are moving into CJ, they could provide a volunteer force of resource to run the daily business. Many can have good experience from previous jobs. If some of the locals are not too bright, they can be educated and everybody should get involved in the local discussion forums. The more views are confronted the better and more solid decision can be made. Yes planning is essential and that should be the first goal for the CJ governing body. The community just needs to make sure it is based on everybody's input and not hijacked by wealthy profiteers. A strong LOCAL government will deter outside speculations!
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Kokopelli
Senior Member
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Posts: 22



« Reply #8 on: January 24, 2008, 06:44:56 AM »

All I can say is good luck.

Even the Chamber has difficulty attracting competent willing volunteers and there have been many competing organizations over the years. Every one thinks that everyone else is not doing the right thing. The current one is the IV Merchants Association. But there have been many. The Hwy 199 Committee., IV Economic Development Committee, the 2010 Committee and others. Volunteers get burnt out. And get trashed by their fellow citizens as consensus is extremely difficult anywhere. Every one has their own ideas and often defends them vigorously.  I think it is a lot of the biggest fish in a little pond syndrome.  It is also, survival of the fittest.  When all are struggling to survive giving ground to a competitor is a difficult concept, even if it benefits all parties in the end.

Few people with means or education want to live in a small town such as Cave Junction. If they want to live in a town, it has to have something to do. Some reason to attract them. CJ can't even keep its park in good order or the swimming pool. When given the chance some years ago, they rejected the idea of preserving the paths thru what is now developed as bike and walking trails. They didnít want the trouble of fighting with private property rights for the benefit of the city. Most people with means that want to live in the valley want to live outside of town where they can afford to have a garden and some animals and have some privacy and park what ever they want for as long as they want.  What is the incentive to live in town? High water and sewer bills and higher taxes for no service!

When you look at the demographics of CJ there are a lot of renters and the next largest group is low income.  Many houses are government subsidized and even the retirees are mostly of low incomes. Very few really nice houses in the city because it just doesn't attract those kinds of people.

Those of us that live outside the city have no say. In New England they have a concept of townships where the town is just a part of the area. That way people of the area are a part of the town and every one pays some tax towards it and everyone in the township gets a vote. That way the town represents the area, not just those living inside the city limits. That concept would be great for our valley but is not legal under the Oregon Constitution.

I don't know what the answers are but so far I have not heard of any practical solution to what you write about.  Without the outside developers, you get nothing. With them, you get what they want to provide us.  I just can't imagine that you can get a city made up of low income folks to get up off their butts and work hard to change the city for the better. If they had been ambitious they probably wouldn't be in such poverty.  I know it is possible as I came here with virtually nothing and now own my own home outright and have other assets. It takes hard work and strict management of the dollars and I see few others willing to do that.

I hope you succeed where other have failed.
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lookinglass
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THINK!


« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2008, 06:24:25 AM »

WOW- I just spent an hour replying to this chain and as I a was proof reading,I hit a button and it all disapeared. angry
Basically what I was saying was that preserving the small town feel of a town can be its biggest selling point. I have been thinking about the fate of CJ for quite a while(see my post from last August-town vision) I am now aware of how hard it is to work within the current political restraints concerning voting districts("out of the district folks") and voter apathy("in district voters with little political interest) This is a situation ripe for corporate bulldozzing. Many developers would see the whole town as a potential gas station-quickie mart for the rich passing through with a built in minimum wage work force. CJ has the potential to be the kind of place where folks linger and live the good life.  There is a growing trend in among Americans who want to have an urban lifestyle. They want to work, shop, and eat within walking/biking/public transporting distance from their home. They are wiling to do this in order to control urban sprawl. Protecting the green spaces is becoming increasingly popular. And, not every one wants to live 10,20+ miles from the nearest store. With a little foresight and urban planning, Cj could be this American dream. Urban dwellers want to have access to safe sidewalks, post offices, cafes, drug stores, markets, trees, flowers, public art, restaurants, book shops, farm/garden and animal supply stores coffee houses and FREE wireless internet!! I propose: slowing down the traffic on 199 in town, improving sidewalks, installing planters, encouraging shop owners to plant flowers, new paint and signage on stores and public areas, public art and murals, reopening a Hammers type of cafe/store, outdoor seating, reasonable pricing on purchased good, improving safety, bringing in cell towers for improved wireless communications, free wireless in town; to name a few urban improvements that would encourage compassionate voters that care to move to town!  When I lived there, I lived in the city and in the woods. I remember loving the fact that everthing was in walking distance. On days when i would come to town from Takilma picking friends up on the way, it was like an urban adventure and we would all carpool in and make the day of it catching up with friends and buying our supplies. It is hard for me to make the above long distance suggestions because I havn't lived in CJ since the early 90's when the downtown seemed to have a vibe(b4 Hammers closed?!?) Infact, i once lived above the book store in the building next door and I loved living in the humm of town and the escape to the woods just down the road!  Both lifestyles have merits and both depend an a centralized and vital downtown arena. What I can talk about long distance are  the kinds of things that have been working in other towns all across America. I have lived in and around AnnArbor Mi (near Detroit) and currently live in southeaster PA. Urban living and the granola-eco friendly lifestyle really go hand in hand in these places! And these people are working from home using their laptops to reach the global work place.  They also start small local buisinesses and stimulate the economy in small town friendly ways. These are the folks you want to lure to Cave Junction. This is my 2cents!!!
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Be the change you want to see in the world.-Ghandi
Kokopelli
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« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2008, 07:56:53 AM »

All I can say is that I hope you are successful where others have failed.

You should run for mayor to start with or at least council. You have to use the system to change it.

I agree with what you say but not sure how that can happen in CJ. If you attract business for the jobs for these urbanites, you have to deal with their demands. Besides there really is no land available where you can put a bunch of people to work. We had Fire Mountain Gems who wanted to expand here and no one with the land would sell or sell at a reasonable price so they went to GP.

When you look at business development models you will discover that it takes a lot to attract business and in most cases, businesses grow where it is profitable and there is the least resistance. At this point our city or valley has little to offer the kinds of businesses you would like to see here. It is the old chicken and the egg problem. You can't provide the amenities to attract the people and or business without money and you can't get the money until you've attracted the business.

We had our chance with the Federal Enterprise Designation and the money that came with it but the locals were totally ineffective, except for the paid staff of the social service organizations who were quite use to government grants. So we got a wonderful Family Coalition complex and a few studies and the beginnings of this and that like the Wayside, Forks Park Plan  and the Howell Memorial Drive and a wasted IMHO effort at the airport when we could have moved a long way towards what you envision. Part of what you want is/was in the plan too. It was the city and the county that kept those parts from fruition IMO. Ignorance and a stead fast vision of the past and no willingness to work towards a quality future.

My grandmother use to say that poor people have poor ways. I think that is very appropriate. People who have no vision for themselves end up going no where.

So luck to you and our valley and city and I wish you well in your endeavors.

I hope you have the time and skills to make a lot of friends as moving people forward takes cooperation as much as it takes a skillful leader. Become a member of every organization and get to know everyone before you try and implement a plan. Get people to like you and want to help you before you try and get them to change.

Don't let them get you down if you can.  The valley needs people like you.
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Sharloch
Junior Member
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« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2008, 11:04:28 AM »

check this common sense economics...

http://www.alternet.org/module/printversion/74262

One question: How do you keep a small town charm from becoming a big town missery, while you attract business, tourism and investment?
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thruthelookinglass
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THINK!


« Reply #12 on: January 26, 2008, 06:04:04 AM »

I am having some technical difficulty with my profile. I attempted to update my email and for some reason the site will not let me log in to re activate my original one  because it wont recognize my new address and it will not send m a new activation code. Bummer! In the meantime. . . I have started a new profile with a similar name but I will keep trying to reopen my previous one.

If I were in Cj  I would do exactly what you said. Get to know the business people and the town folks and work my plans through the inside. Etc.etc. However, I live in Pennsylvania. I used to live in CJ and still have family there and like to keep up to date on the happinins'. I also care about the place and have very good memories of my time spent there. I would like come back one day but for now i am locked into my world here. By the way, Here is a very cool place. And, small towns do quite well and dont seem to have major issues with losing charm and attracting misery. Alot of the people who live in these towns actually do ,work in bigger near by cities. Many are self employed or run small "laptop" business. Ebay, mail order, writers, editors, "laptop commuters" Some are artist,musicians or antique dealers. Agritainmentfarmers, organic farmers, farm marketers, coffee shop owners as well owners of restaurants,art galleries, book/gift stores. Touresty places. Charming places. They are places that draw paying customers in from other towns. Like a playhouse run by a the actor Jeff Daniels in Chelsea Mich(he grew up there), a wonderful restaurants and an up scale pub to eat in before catching the show. An art gallery to peruse as you stroll from one to the other. What I am saying is ... draw on the things unique to your town and build tourism up around that. Offer lots of variety of things to do. Good places to stay the night, good places to eat in and good places to shop for souvenirs. People will want to live in a town like this. t
They will need wireless internet. CJ is so small that a few shops downtown offering this could cover most of the town. Internet cafes could draw in those woods dwellers! There are alot of people who want to live there because it has a "hippy" vibe. Draw on that. Give up the fight between the tree huggers and the tree loggers. That was that was last years argument. Join together and save the town! Oh, and tourist and young families and urbanites like trees (and clean water)! So keep them! 
Most off these towns also have a strong merchants asscoc. who get together and plan ways to strengthen and support each other. They plan events  like street parties and extended hours on say one friday a month. Even set up an out door band or two to set the mood.  Look Cj has some big draws. The caves, the Out and About Treesort, the vinyards the rivers, the trees and rivers, the artist and musicians, the laid back lifestyle. The society from creative acranisms used to come to the forks. Plenty of park space for events. The two blocks of large sidewalks across from the old Select mart(now the bank?) and the parking lot  are great places to host a outdoor summer event once a month.( the bank could and should help pay for this!) Slow down the traffic on 199 and add some public planters and art and music( and not to much booze...maybe lean to micro brew and wine tasting Is the pizza brew pub on the north end still in business?)  ... It gives the people something to do and be proud of. It unites. And when its advertised well it gives surrounding cities an opportunity to come down for a look see.
Granted this is a pretty crappy economy for such changes and towns like Ashland are better at this summer street party sort of thing. But, there are alot of people in the woods of the Illionios River Valley and they all need to come to somebodies town to shop and hang out. I see them begging for another store to shop at in this web site. Cj will have to offer tax incentives to lure business. Philly is offering the film industry in Hollywood huge tax breaks to set up here. It will bring tons of jobs and money to the area. Philly can offer urban glam and urban ghetto, countryfarmlands , water, hills, flat lands, historic settings,etc as backdrops. Philly is building on one of its strengths. Philly is set to become the Hollywood of the east coast. I know this because I read about it. We have a lot of publications-again small business- that circulate the local news and make money  advertising places to eat and shop,, calender of events, things to do etc. Small things like this help to bring the sense of town charm and pride and unity and  growth .
There isnt big town misery because the town planning commission requires the new businesses to "play by the rules " set up by the town for the good of the town.i.e.maintaining the small town charm and keeping the town centralized so that it stays a thriving small town. A place where you can park and walk to all of your errands.  Or park and partake in many shops on your way to a dinner and a show -a night out!   Meet up with friends, etc.
I know of a  small (growing!) town that threatened to out grow its downtown post office and library. Plans were made to rebuild outside of downtown by 10 miles. The people said NO WAY. They did what it took to rebuild a bigger library in town and are building a mail handling PO outside of town while keeping the original office in town. They did this because the young families that were moving to the town came there because it is q real Small Town American Dream to live there. Its its own selling point. The old timers welcomed the big business because they saw it as a sign of success after being a "sleepy" town for so long. The new families saw it as what they wanted to get away from. The compromise...All big box stores are built ast the far end of the town, out by the highway, and the downtown keeps its charm and continues to draw folks in for its charm. Incidentally, this town has a major road running through it as does Cj.
California is coming north. Slow economies pick back up. The question is, what will they make of Cave Junction when they get there? Or, will Cave Junction have already laid down the plans to make something of its self?
Since you live there, why dont You run for office?
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Be the change you want to see in the world.-Ghandi
Sharloch
Junior Member
**
Posts: 18


« Reply #13 on: January 28, 2008, 01:02:36 PM »

This is just my opinion and I do not expect that people would buy into it, but I disagree with inviting any big business (or rich investors) into town. When they invest, they need to keep their investment under their control - naturally, and they will use their money to buy them first place in the decision making process. So instead of having a whole community equally sharing the government, one entity will start dominating the stage.

If you have Netflix or anything similar, order a documentary DVDs:

1. The Corporation
2. The Future of Food

that should give you a new perspective on big business and who is its victims...
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Kokopelli
Senior Member
***
Posts: 22



« Reply #14 on: January 28, 2008, 04:34:44 PM »

Sharlock,

I tend to agree with you about big business.  When you look at the statistics, few businesses relocate anyway. You have to give them big incentives to attract them and then they own you instead of you having any control.

It is best to home grow your business anyway. That was why the community did all those studies thru the end of the last decade and into the beginning of this one. Unfortunately it was a huge waste of time because all the cards are stacked against us. The resistance is set up by both the county and the state.  It is to bad that our county has worked so hard to keep us from being anything other than poor. It is really the city of GP that controls the county and they want all the jobs and control. They can do that by keeping the IV as a poor step child.

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